NDA Will Win With Two-Thirds Majority, Says Rajnath. Polls Say Something Else.

On the eve of Bihar’s two-phase assembly election, Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh delivered one of the cycle’s boldest forecasts. Speaking on November 4–5, he asserted that the NDA would secure a two-thirds majority—more than 162 seats in the 243-member Assembly—adding there is a “clear wave” and that voters have “made up their minds.”

The timing was surgical: hours before Phase 1 voting on November 6, when narrative-setting can influence confidence and turnout.

What polls actually suggest

Independent polling through late October and early November generally shows the NDA ahead but shy of a landslide. Most credible ranges place the NDA around the low-to-mid 130s at the upper end, with the Mahagathbandhan in the 90s to low 100s. In short: an NDA edge, not the runaway Singh projects.

Why the gap matters

Ambitious predictions are standard in Indian campaigns, but Singh’s number is well above the high end of public polling. That’s not just optimism—it’s tactic. A commanding forecast can manufacture momentum: signal inevitability to fence-sitters, energize your base, and demoralize the opposition. In tight races, perception is a resource.

The Nitish–Tejashwi paradox

Bihar’s arithmetic is layered. Nitish Kumar leans on governance continuity despite alliance flip-flops. Tejashwi Yadav often tops preferred CM measures. That creates a paradox: personal popularity for Tejashwi coexists with seat projections that still favor the NDA. Singh’s messaging leans into “development continuity” over personality politics.

Context: parallel narrative warfare

Singh’s prediction landed the same day Rahul Gandhi unveiled “H-Files” alleging voter manipulation in Haryana. Side by side, the frames are stark: the ruling side projects inevitability; the opposition questions process integrity. It’s a reminder that Indian elections now run on dueling narratives as much as on numbers.

Track record and framing

Rajnath Singh has made optimistic calls before. Some hit, some miss. After the 2024 general election, the NDA secured a third term even as “400 paar” talk didn’t materialize; post-result coverage emphasized victory, not the miss. Expect similar framing here: if results come in around, say, 125–145 seats for the NDA, the headline will likely read “NDA wins”—not “prediction overshot.”

What to watch next

With voting concluding November 9 and results on November 14, two signals will matter:

1. whether turnout patterns suggest the confidence play affected behavior; and
2. how both camps recalibrate messaging if the final tally falls well below—or surprisingly above—the two-thirds line.

Whatever the scoreboard, Singh’s claim underscores a broader shift: predictions are no longer just projections—they’re instruments of persuasion. Bihar will supply the numbers. The campaigns are already writing the story around them.

Quick FAQs (reader-facing)

Q1. What exactly did Rajnath Singh claim?

He said the NDA will win a two-thirds majority in Bihar (162+ of 243 seats).

Q2. Do public opinion polls back that number?

Not fully. Most recent polls show the NDA ahead, but generally below two-thirds; ranges often top out in the low–mid 130s.

Q3. Why make a bold claim right before voting?

To shape perception—project inevitability, energize supporters, and potentially depress opponent turnout (classic expectation-setting).

Q4. When are votes cast and counted?

Two phases (Nov 6 and 9); counting/results on Nov 14.

Q5. How does Nitish vs Tejashwi factor in?

Tejashwi often leads in “preferred CM” polls, yet seat projections still lean NDA—voters may be separating leadership preference from alliance/governance preference.

Q6. Is there strong anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar?

Analysts note fatigue and alliance flip-flops, but not a uniformly strong anti-incumbency wave; welfare + infrastructure still matter to many voters.

Q7. Could the two-thirds claim become self-fulfilling?

It can influence margins at the edges (turnout, late deciders), but it can’t overturn fundamentals if the gap is large.