Inside Bihar’s biggest opposition meltdown — what really broke the alliance

The Mahagathbandhan suffered a severe collapse in the 2025 Bihar Assembly election, finishing with just 35 seats, down from 125 in 2020. RJD fell to 25 seats, while Congress won only six — one of its weakest performances in decades. This dramatic implosion reveals deep fractures in the opposition’s strategy, social base, and campaign messaging.

The context (how we got here)

The alliance entered 2025 balancing internal contradictions: a dominant RJD, a weakened Congress, and ideological differences across INDIA bloc partners. Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign leaned heavily on unemployment, migration, and corruption allegations. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi pushed the narrative of “vote chori”, alleging voter-roll duplication and EVM manipulation — claims the Election Commission refuted.

The NDA countered with a unified message, parity-based seat-sharing, and women-centric welfare delivery. As the opposition overstretched itself across themes, the NDA capitalised on a more targeted and disciplined strategy.

The key players (who & so what)

Tejashwi Yadav – positioned as the youth alternative but failed to expand RJD beyond its traditional base.

Lalu Prasad Yadav – his legacy still shapes RJD, but the party’s MY coalition showed signs of fatigue.

Congress – organisationally weak; its 6/61 performance dragged the alliance down.

AIMIM – won five seats, cutting into the opposition’s Muslim vote.

NDA – unified, disciplined, and buoyed by women voters and EBC support.

Before the results, Tejashwi declared: “We will form the government with a thumping majority.” The numbers told a very different story.

The BIGSTORY Reframe

While mainstream coverage attributes the loss to weak organisation and anti-incumbency miscalculation, the deeper shift was structural erosion of the MY (Muslim–Yadav) coalition.

Three underreported forces drove the collapse:

1. Women voters – shifted heavily toward NDA, diluting RJD’s traditional social coalition.
2. AIMIM’s rise – peeled away Muslim votes in Seemanchal.
3. EBC realignment – NDA created a “Mahila + EBC” bloc that outmatched MY numerically.

The Mahagathbandhan fought a 2025 election with a 2010 strategy — and the mismatch proved fatal.

The implications (why this changes things)

The collapse raises existential questions for the INDIA bloc. With Congress struggling in Bihar, Maharashtra, and Haryana, regional parties may reconsider alliances centred around it. RJD’s failure to expand beyond MY weakens its claim as Bihar’s natural alternative to the NDA.

For the NDA, the opposition vacuum grants significant legislative freedom and weakens checks on executive power, setting the tone for Bihar’s next political chapter.

The closing question (now, think about this)

If old caste coalitions are breaking apart and new gender–class coalitions are emerging, what does an “opposition strategy” even look like in Bihar’s next decade?

Sources

NDTV – Bihar results live

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-assembly-elections-results-2025-live-updates-nitish-kumar-tejashwi-yadav-mahagathbandhan-bjp-nda-rjd-congress-9632014

Hindustan Times – Congress 6/61 performance

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-eci-vote-chori-pitch-falls-flat-bihar-mgb-stares-crushing-loss-vote-chors-massive-win-101763110473689.html

Indian Express – “Vote chori” claims

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-elections-loss-congress-revives-vote-chori-claim-eci-bjp-modi-10367237/

Economic Times – NDA wave analysis

https://economictimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/bihar-delivers-decisive-mandate-as-nda-wave-sweeps-opposition-aside/articleshow/125336171.cms

Tribune India – Women voters reshape Bihar

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/why-bihars-woman-voter-is-the-real-winner-of-2025/

Wikipedia – Lalu Prasad Yadav

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lalu_Prasad_Yadav