Zelensky says a 20-point peace plan with security guarantees is ready for Russia. But with the Kremlin rejecting a truce, the deal faces imminent collapse.
Sseema Giill
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced today that a revised 20-point peace proposal, negotiated with U.S. officials in Berlin, could be finalized and presented to Russia within days. The plan, described by U.S. negotiators as having reached "90% consensus," includes a breakthrough offer of NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine—a key demand of Kyiv. However, the diplomatic momentum is colliding with a hard wall of reality: the Kremlin has already preemptively dismissed key elements of the proposal, including a holiday ceasefire, signaling that Vladimir Putin may prefer a prolonged war over a negotiated compromise.
Since Donald Trump's initial 28-point proposal in November faced backlash for being too accommodating to Russia, Zelensky has worked furiously to reshape the terms. The new framework, hammered out with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reportedly creates a demilitarized "free economic zone" in the contested Donbas region and promises robust Western defense commitments outside of formal NATO membership. But Putin's December 4 declaration in New Delhi—that Russia intends to achieve its original military objectives—casts a long shadow over these efforts. The Russian leader's insistence on full territorial control directly contradicts the "free zone" compromise, setting the stage for a diplomatic collision.
While headlines focus on the "90% consensus," the deeper story is the "Budapest Ghost." The proposed "Article 5-like" security guarantees bear an eerie resemblance to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Western powers promised Ukraine security in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons—promises that evaporated when Russia invaded in 2014. Without the automatic trigger of actual NATO membership, these new bilateral assurances may be nothing more than paper shields. Zelensky is effectively being asked to trade tangible territory (the Donbas buffer) for a diplomatic promise that failed his country once before. It’s a gamble that risks repeating history, not making it.
If Russia rejects the plan as expected, the ball returns to Trump's court. Will the U.S. President escalate military aid to force Putin to the table, or will he wash his hands of the conflict, leaving Ukraine exposed? For Europe, the stakes are existential; the proposed "multinational security force" would require European boots on the ground in a non-NATO capacity, a move that could either deter Russian aggression or drag the continent into a direct shooting war. The next 72 hours will determine whether 2026 begins with a ceasefire or a dangerous new phase of escalation.
If peace requires Ukraine to trust a promise that failed before and Russia to abandon goals it believes it can win, is this a negotiation, or just theater before the next battle?
What are the details of the 20-point Ukraine peace plan? The plan, negotiated in Berlin, includes a demilitarized "free economic zone" in the Donbas with international monitoring, "Article 5-like" security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe (short of NATO membership), accelerated EU accession for Ukraine, and a massive reconstruction fund managed by international investors.
Why is Russia rejecting the peace proposals? The Kremlin argues the proposals do not meet its core objectives, specifically full control over the Donbas and recognition of annexed territories. Russian officials have also dismissed the idea of a Christmas ceasefire, stating they want a comprehensive resolution that addresses their security concerns, not a temporary truce.
What does 'Article 5-like' security guarantee mean for Ukraine? It refers to a bilateral commitment from the U.S. and European nations to defend Ukraine against future aggression, similar to NATO's collective defense clause. However, unlike NATO membership, these guarantees would likely be time-limited, revocable by future administrations, and lack the automatic, treaty-bound enforcement of the NATO alliance.
Will Ukraine have to cede territory for peace? The current proposal suggests a compromise where Ukraine withdraws military forces from parts of the Donbas to create a "free economic zone," but does not legally recognize Russian sovereignty over the territory. However, Russia demands full recognition of its annexations, creating a major deadlock.
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