“War Will Happen”: Pakistan’s Stark Warning to Taliban

Hours before the third round of Pakistan–Afghanistan peace talks opened in Istanbul, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif delivered a chilling warning: “War will happen.”

The statement, issued on November 5, has jolted already fragile negotiations and raised fears of a return to open conflict along one of the world’s most volatile borders. The timing — on the eve of what both governments call a “final, decisive round” — underscores how close the two nations are to abandoning diplomacy altogether.

The Context: Ceasefire on Paper, Conflict in Practice

The warning comes amid a tenuous truce brokered in late October after the deadliest clashes since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover, which left at least 23–58 Pakistani soldiers and 200 Afghan fighters dead.

Pakistan blames the Taliban for harboring the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group behind multiple cross-border attacks. The Taliban, in turn, accuses Islamabad of using airstrikes and deportations as collective punishment.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s mass expulsion of 1.5 million Afghan refugees over the past two years — with tens of thousands forced out in October alone — has inflamed tensions. Analysts say the deportations serve as strategic pressure on Kabul rather than simply a domestic policy decision.

Economic & Humanitarian Fallout

The closure of border crossings has paralyzed trade. Losses exceed $50 million, with $1 million in daily damages and skyrocketing food prices — tomatoes up 400%, fruit shipments rotting on both sides of the border, and 25,000 jobs disrupted.

Pakistan’s inflation surged to 6.2% in October, its highest of the year, driven by trade disruption and shortages. Humanitarian agencies warn that deportations and economic blockades could deepen Afghanistan’s food insecurity through the winter.

The BIGSTORY Reframe — This Isn’t Just a Border Crisis

Mainstream headlines frame this as another border flare-up or refugee standoff. But the real story is more complex — a five-front power struggle intertwining security, economy, and technology:

1. Refugees as leverage: Pakistan’s deportations aren’t reactive — they’re a calculated tool of statecraft to pressure Kabul and disrupt Taliban governance stability.

2. Economic warfare: The blockade is a non-military weapon, designed to squeeze Afghanistan’s fragile trade-dependent economy.

3. The Drone Domino Effect: Drone warfare, once confined to India–Pakistan skirmishes, is now spreading westward. The TTP reportedly acquired AI-assisted targeting drones, linking this border conflict to the wider regional “tech weaponization” race.

4. The Extremist Tech Revolution: TTP and splinter groups are experimenting with AI-enhanced reconnaissance and digital propaganda, turning Afghanistan into a live testbed for extremist tech adoption.

5. The Port War Behind the Border War: This fight isn’t just about sanctuaries — it’s about Chabahar (India–Iran) versus Gwadar (Pakistan–China), two competing corridors that decide who controls Central Asian trade routes. Afghanistan sits uncomfortably between them.

Together, these layers reveal that the Pakistan–Afghanistan standoff is not a temporary flare-up, but part of a larger geopolitical and technological shift redefining South Asia’s balance of power.

What Key Players Are Saying

Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s Defence Minister:

“War will happen… We have our options. Considering how we are being targeted, we may respond in the same manner.”

Sirajuddin Haqqani, Afghanistan’s Interior Minister:

“If our patience is tested again, our response will be very crushing... Afghanistan may lack long-range missiles, but it has strong resolve and determination.”

Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister:

“We want to move forward positively with Afghanistan, but cross-border militancy has made that increasingly difficult.”

Regional Stakes and Spillover Risks

India, Iran, and Turkey are watching closely. Analysts say Chabahar and Gwadar — rival ports backed by India and China respectively — are becoming proxy stages for influence over Central Asian trade. Any military escalation could derail regional logistics and push the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into further uncertainty.

Turkey, hosting the talks, has urged restraint but privately warned diplomats that a breakdown in Istanbul could “ignite the border for years.”

The Road Ahead

Pakistan insists the Taliban must dismantle TTP sanctuaries or face “direct consequences.” Kabul says it’s already cracking down, but lacks resources to confront the TTP without international support.

Observers expect limited airstrikes or drone retaliation from Pakistan if the Istanbul round collapses. That would effectively end two years of on-and-off dialogue.

Meanwhile, refugees remain the silent casualties — caught between militarized politics and collapsing economies.

The Closing Question

The Pakistan–Afghanistan border has always been a line drawn in dust, but technology, trade, and strategy have turned it into a front line of the 21st century.

The question now:

Will the Istanbul talks end the cycle — or mark the beginning of South Asia’s next shadow war?

FAQ

Q1: What did Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif say?

A: On November 5, 2025, Asif warned the Taliban that “war will happen” if cross-border attacks continue — hours before peace talks began in Istanbul.

Q2: Why are Pakistan and Afghanistan in conflict?

A: Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban government of sheltering the TTP, a militant group behind recent attacks. The Taliban denies this and says Pakistan’s airstrikes and refugee deportations violate sovereignty.

Q3: How many refugees have been deported from Pakistan?

A: About 1.5 million Afghans have been deported between 2023 and 2025, with 85,000–90,000 expelled from Balochistan alone in October 2025.

Q4: How is the economy affected by border tensions?

A: Border closures have caused over $50 million in losses, pushed tomato prices up 400%, and disrupted 25,000 jobs across both sides.

Q5: What is the role of the TTP in this conflict?

A: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), with 6,000–6,500 fighters inside Afghanistan, is at the heart of the dispute. Pakistan blames the Taliban for giving TTP sanctuary.

Q6: What’s the connection to drones and technology?

A: TTP and regional militant groups have reportedly gained AI-assisted drone capabilities, mirroring drone warfare seen in the India–Pakistan conflict earlier in 2025.