Defying Trump? Why Modi Is Rolling Out the Red Carpet for Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit India on December 4-5, 2025, for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit, marking his first trip to the country since the start of the Ukraine war. The visit, confirmed by the Ministry of External Affairs, comes at a geopolitical flashpoint: US President Donald Trump has threatened "massive tariffs" on India unless it halts Russian oil purchases. Despite this pressure, Prime Minister [Narendra Modi] is proceeding with the summit, signaling that New Delhi prioritizes its strategic autonomy and energy security over compliance with Western sanctions.

The Context (How We Got Here)

The summit celebrates 25 years of the India-Russia strategic partnership, a relationship that has deepened even as the West isolated Moscow. Bilateral trade hit a record $68.7 billion in FY 2024-25, driven largely by India's purchase of discounted Russian oil. While the US has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods in retaliation, India's defense reliance—68-70% of its military hardware is Russian—remains a critical bind. The Modi-Putin rapport was visible at the August SCO summit, where Putin broke protocol to wait for Modi, followed by a 45-minute informal discussion that set the stage for this visit.

The Key Players (Who & So What)

Narendra Modi (Prime Minister): The host balancing on a tightrope. By inviting Putin, he is asserting India's right to choose partners based on national interest, specifically energy prices and defense needs against China and Pakistan.
Vladimir Putin (Russian President): The guest seeking legitimacy. For Putin, a state visit to the world's largest democracy undermines Western narratives of his isolation and secures a vital economic lifeline.
Donald Trump (US President): The disruptor. His tariff threats have raised the stakes, turning a bilateral summit into a test of American leverage in the Indo-Pacific.

The BIGSTORY Reframe

While the headlines focus on oil and tariffs, the deeper story is the "Two-Front War Insurance." India isn't just buying oil; it's buying insurance. Following the May 2025 "Operation Sindoor" crisis, where Pakistan deployed Chinese J-10C jets, India's reliance on the Russian S-400 system proved existential. The S-400's efficient performance confirmed that Western alternatives (like the Patriot) are either too expensive or unavailable in the required timeframe. Modi's embrace of Putin isn't ideological; it's a survival strategy against the China-Pakistan axis. The summit will likely fast-track the remaining S-400 deliveries and discuss joint production of the Su-57 fighter, cementing a defense bond the West cannot currently replace.

The Implications (Why This Changes Things)

The visit formalizes a "decoupled" trade order. India and Russia are expected to sign a landmark labor mobility agreement and deepen AI cooperation for defense systems, effectively sanction-proofing key sectors. For the US, this is a reality check: tariffs may punish India, but they won't sever its Russian ties as long as China remains a threat. Expect a turbulent period in Indo-US relations, with the potential for secondary sanctions if the summit yields major new defense contracts.

The Closing Question (Now, Think About This)

If the US punishes India for buying Russian oil, does it push New Delhi closer to Moscow, or just leave it alone to face China?

FAQs

Why is Vladimir Putin visiting India in December 2025? Putin is visiting for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit to discuss strategic partnerships, primarily focusing on defense deals (S-400, Su-57), energy security (oil imports), and trade, which has reached $68.7 billion.

How has the US reacted to Putin's visit to India? The Trump administration has expressed strong disapproval, threatening "massive tariffs" (up to 50%) on Indian goods if New Delhi continues to purchase Russian oil and deepen ties with Moscow.

What is the significance of the S-400 system in this summit? The S-400 air defense system is critical for India's security against threats from China and Pakistan. The summit is expected to finalize the delivery schedule for the remaining units, despite the risk of US sanctions.

Is India defying Western sanctions by hosting Putin? India maintains a policy of "strategic autonomy," balancing ties with the West and Russia. While not explicitly defying sanctions (India is not a signatory to the Rome Statute regarding the ICC warrant), hosting Putin signals that India prioritizes its national interests over Western geopolitical preferences.

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Sseema Giill Founder & CEO

Sseema Giill is an inspiring media professional, CEO of Screenage Media Pvt Ltd, and founder of the NGO AGE (Association for Gender Equality). She is also the Founder CEO and Chief Editor at BIGSTORY NETWORK. Giill champions women's empowerment and gender equality, particularly in rural India, and was honored with the Champions of Change Award in 2023.