"2.5-Year Promise": Will Congress High Command Back DK Shivakumar?

The power struggle within the Karnataka Congress has reached a critical impasse. Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar is waiting for the party's high command to honor an alleged "2.5-year power-sharing" agreement made in May 2023. With Chief Minister Siddaramaiah completing 30 months in office on November 20, 2025, the deadline for the supposed handover has passed. Sources indicate that the Congress leadership in Delhi—fearing internal rebellion—has deferred the final decision to the window of December 19-24, after the conclusion of the ongoing Parliament and Karnataka Assembly sessions.

The Context (How We Got Here)

The conflict stems from the government's formation in May 2023, where Shivakumar claims a verbal pact was made to rotate the CM post halfway through the term. Siddaramaiah has categorically denied any such deal. The tension escalated in late November when Shivakumar posted cryptically that "Keeping a promise is the biggest power move," prompting a sharp retort from the CM. This standoff mirrors Congress’s previous failures with rotational formulas in Chhattisgarh (2021) and Rajasthan (2023), where incumbents refused to step down, damaging the party's credibility and electoral prospects.

The Key Players (Who & So What)

• DK Shivakumar (Deputy CM): The challenger. Backed by the Vokkaliga community and his reputation as the party's trouble-shooter, he argues that without a leadership change, the cadre’s morale for the 2028 elections will collapse.
• Siddaramaiah (Chief Minister): The incumbent. Commanding the loyalty of over 100 MLAs and the AHINDA (minorities, backward classes, Dalits) vote bank, he holds the numerical upper hand. His camp frames the demand for change as destabilizing a popular government.
• Rahul Gandhi: The arbiter. The final decision rests with him. Reports suggest he is wary of disrupting a stable government but is also conscious of Shivakumar’s pivotal role in the party's resource management and organization.

The BIGSTORY Reframe

While headlines focus on the "Breakfast Diplomacy" and public posturing, the deeper story is the "Trust Deficit." Congress’s inability to enforce its own internal agreements has become a systemic vulnerability. By repeatedly brokering "secret deals" to quell immediate dissent—only to abandon them later—the high command has created a culture where no promise is credible. Furthermore, the "Caste Calculation" is the silent driver; the high command is paralyzed not just by MLA numbers, but by the fear of alienating either the massive OBC base (Siddaramaiah) or the influential Vokkaliga community (Shivakumar), proving that identity politics still trumps performance metrics in decision-making.

The Implications (Why This Changes Things)

If the high command denies Shivakumar the post, the risk isn't just a disgruntled leader; it is the potential fracture of the party organization ahead of 2028. Shivakumar controls the party machinery in a way Siddaramaiah does not. Conversely, forcing a change could trigger a revolt by Siddaramaiah’s MLA loyalists, potentially destabilizing the government entirely. The decision next week will define whether Congress can manage its own victories or if it is destined to be undone by them.

The Closing Question (Now, Think About This)

If a "secret deal" cannot be enforced because it was never written down, does it prove that in politics, a word is only as good as the power to break it?

FAQs

Did Congress promise DK Shiva Kumar he would become CM after 2.5 years? The claim is disputed. DK Shivakumar asserts there was a "secret deal" involving 5-6 top leaders in May 2023 for him to take over after 30 months. However, Siddaramaiah and his camp have consistently denied the existence of any such formal agreement, and the party has never officially confirmed it.

When will the final decision on the Karnataka CM post be made? Sources suggest the Congress high command has deferred the decision until December 19-24, 2025. This timing allows for the conclusion of the ongoing Winter Sessions of both Parliament and the Karnataka Assembly before any major leadership changes are considered.

Why is the Congress high command hesitant to change the CM? The leadership fears repeating the failures of Chhattisgarh (2021) and Rajasthan (2023), where rotational formulas led to internal rebellion and damaged the party's electoral prospects. Additionally, Siddaramaiah commands the support of a significant majority of MLAs (estimated at 100-105 out of 135), making a forced removal risky for government stability.

How many MLAs support Siddaramaiah versus DK Shivakumar? Current estimates indicate a significant numerical advantage for the incumbent. Siddaramaiah reportedly has the backing of 100-105 MLAs, while DK Shivakumar is supported by a core group of 30-35 loyalists. This disparity makes a leadership change difficult without risking a split.

Sources

News Coverage

• NDTV – Karnataka CM tussle: Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar told to end rift
• India Today – Karnataka Congress crisis: Delhi meet December 19
• Economic Times – Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar project unity with breakfast meets

Context & Analysis

• Indian Express – Inside the Karnataka Congress power tussle
• The Week – Why is the rotational CM formula of Congress a non-starter?