Urs Equaled, Term Secured? Why Siddaramaiah Is Confident of 5 Years

History repeated itself today in Bengaluru. On January 6, 2026, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah officially equaled the record of the legendary D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving Chief Minister (cumulative tenure of approx. 7 years, 8 months). But the real headline wasn't the milestone; it was his declaration: "I am confident of completing the full five-year term." This statement, coming months after the speculative 2.5-year power-sharing deadline passed, was met with a terse "Good luck" from his deputy and rival, D.K. Shivakumar.

The Context (How We Got Here)

Since the Congress victory in May 2023, the administration has operated under the shadow of a rumored "rotational formula"—2.5 years for Siddaramaiah, followed by 2.5 years for Shivakumar. That halfway mark passed in November 2025 without a leadership change. Today’s milestone isn’t just a calendar event; it is the solidification of the status quo. Siddaramaiah has successfully used his AHINDA (minorities, backward classes, Dalits) support base to mirror the social engineering of Devaraj Urs, making him politically expensive to remove.

The Key Players (Who & So What)

• Siddaramaiah (The Record Breaker): By equaling Urs, he has cemented his legacy as the state's most dominant mass leader in decades. His confidence signals he believes the "High Command" has chosen stability over rotation.
• D.K. Shivakumar (The Challenger): His two-word response—"Good luck"—is loaded. It signals strategic patience rather than immediate rebellion, possibly waiting for the upcoming local body election results to make his next move.
• The Congress High Command (The Silent Arbiter): Their refusal to publicly endorse a transition plan is the loudest message of all. In politics, silence is often consent for the incumbent.

The BIGSTORY Reframe

While the media focuses on the "War of Words," the deeper story is the "Reshuffle Code." You do not look at what politicians say; you look at what they are allowed to do. Reports indicate that the Congress High Command has given Siddaramaiah the green light to reshape his cabinet and fill vacant board positions.

This is the "Secret Code." No party leadership allows a Chief Minister to reshuffle a cabinet—rewarding loyalists and entrenching his power structure—if they plan to fire him in a few months. The approval of a reshuffle is the de facto death certificate of the 2.5-year power-sharing deal. Siddaramaiah isn't just speaking with confidence; he is acting with executive clearance.

The Implications (Why This Changes Things)

This signals stability for Karnataka’s administration and its investment climate, particularly for Bengaluru’s tech sector which abhors political uncertainty. However, it risks alienating the Vokkaliga community (DKS’s base) in the Old Mysore region. The Congress is betting that Siddaramaiah’s populist welfare schemes (guarantees) are a safer bet for the 2027 local polls than a disruptive leadership change.

The Closing Question (Now, Think About This)

If the High Command wanted D.K. Shivakumar to take over, why are they letting Siddaramaiah pick the team that will run the state for the next two years?

FAQs

Has Siddaramaiah broken Devaraj Urs' record as Karnataka CM? Yes. On January 6, 2026, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah officially equaled D. Devaraj Urs' cumulative tenure record of approximately 7 years and 8 months, making him the longest-serving Chief Minister in Karnataka's history.

Is there a 2.5-year power-sharing agreement between Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar? While speculation about a 2.5-year rotational CM deal has persisted since May 2023, Siddaramaiah has publicly dismissed it, stating he is confident of completing a full five-year term. The Congress High Command's recent approval for a cabinet reshuffle suggests they are maintaining the status quo rather than planning a leadership change.

What did D.K. Shivakumar say about Siddaramaiah completing a full term? When asked about Siddaramaiah's assertion of completing a full five-year term on January 6, 2026, Deputy CM D.K. Shivakumar responded tersely with just two words: "Good luck." This response avoids direct confrontation while signaling he has not publicly conceded the position.

Sources

• Moneycontrol – Siddaramaiah equals Devaraj Urs record
• The Federal – Shivakumar says 'Good luck' to Siddaramaiah
• Sunday Guardian – Siddaramaiah gets green signal to reshuffle cabinet