NDA’s Big Bihar Comeback? Exit Polls Hint at a Political Earthquake

A consensus of major exit polls released after Bihar’s two-phase voting on November 6 and 11 projects a comfortable victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with a poll-of-polls range of 133–167 seats (average ≈ 147 of 243).

The projections coincide with a record statewide turnout of 66.9 percent and an unprecedented female-turnout advantage — 71.6 percent of registered women voted versus 62.8 percent of men — a gap exit-pollsters link to targeted welfare measures and local campaigning.

The Context (How We Got Here)

Voting for the Bihar Legislative Assembly took place in two phases (November 6 and 11). The 2025 contest recorded significantly higher participation than in 2020, driven by intensified mobilisation and economic issues such as migration and jobs.

The election featured a three-way contest between:

• the NDA led by Nitish Kumar;
• the Mahagathbandhan alliance headed by Tejashwi Yadav; and
• newcomer Jan Suraaj Party founded by strategist Prashant Kishor.

Official results will be declared by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on November 14 2025. Exit polls are only indicative and have historically been unreliable in Bihar, but they set the early narrative for parties and markets alike.

The Key Players (Who & So What)

• Nitish Kumar – Chief Minister since 2005, leads the NDA’s bid for a record tenth term; positioned by pollsters as the primary beneficiary of the 2025 swing.
• Tejashwi Yadav – RJD leader heading the Mahagathbandhan; his youth-centric jobs pitch failed to match 2020 traction, according to early surveys.
• Prashant Kishor – Poll strategist-turned-politician; his Jan Suraaj Party contested nearly all 243 seats but is projected to win 0–5.
• Election Commission of India – Supervising authority responsible for certification of final results on November 14.
• Exit-poll agencies such as Axis My India, C-Voter, and Chanakya provided the data that produced the consolidated poll-of-polls averages.

The BIGSTORY Reframe (The BigStory Angle)

Most national outlets have focused on the near-unanimous projection of an NDA majority. The deeper story lies in the historic rise in women’s participation and the failure of campaign visibility to translate into votes for new entrants.

Bihar 2025 underlines how targeted welfare and booth-level organisation continue to outweigh social-media reach or charismatic appeals. This gender-centred shift could redefine campaign strategies nationwide.

The Implications (Why This Changes Things)

• Political: A confirmed NDA win would reinforce Nitish Kumar’s influence in eastern India and alter alliance calculus ahead of 2029.
• Campaign Strategy: Welfare micro-targeting, especially schemes like the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, may become a replicable template.
• Polling Methodology: Given Bihar’s caste and migration complexity, pollsters face renewed scrutiny over sampling accuracy.
• Social: A sustained female-turnout lead tied to welfare access could reshape budget priorities and candidate messaging.
• Institutional: New parties may need deeper grassroots networks to convert awareness into votes.

The Closing Question (Now, Think About This)

If welfare delivery and ground organisation increasingly decide elections, will policy-driven governance give way to transactional politics that prioritises immediate, visible benefits?

FAQs

Q: What do the Bihar 2025 exit polls predict?

A: Poll-of-polls projects NDA 133–167 seats; Mahagathbandhan ≈ 90; Jan Suraaj 0–5.

Q: When will Bihar 2025 election results be announced?

A: The Election Commission of India will declare official results on November 14 2025.

Q: What’s unique about Bihar 2025 voter turnout?

A: Bihar recorded its highest ever turnout (66.9%) with women voters (71.6%) outnumbering men (62.8%).

Q: Why are exit polls favoring the NDA?

A: Analysts cite welfare schemes for women, stable alliance messaging, and opposition vote-split by Jan Suraaj.

Q: How accurate were Bihar exit polls in 2020?

A: Most predicted a Mahagathbandhan win; actual result was NDA 125 vs MGB 110, underscoring large prediction errors.

Sources

1. Deccan Herald – Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: What Exit Polls Predicted in 2015, 2020 and What the Actual Results Were
2. Times of India – Bihar Exit Polls: Clean Sweep for NDA, Predict Opinion Polls
3. Times of India – Looking Back at Past Exit Poll Predictions Across States: How Close Were They to Actual Results
4. Economic Times – Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2025: Prashant Kishor Factor
5. The Quint – Migration and Employment Data Shaping Bihar Elections 2025
6. The Wire – High Turnout Marks Bihar’s Final Phase of Polling; Exit Polls Predict NDA Win
7. NDTV – Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Live Updates and Exit Poll Coverage
8. Times of India – Women Voters Outshine Men; State Sees Record Turnout of 66.9%
9. News On Air – Bihar CM Nitish Kumar Releases ₹2,500 Crore to 25 Lakh Women Under Mahila Rozgar Yojana
10. Indian Express – Bihar Counting Date and Exit Poll Live Updates
11. India TV News – Exit Poll Seat Share by Social Group (OBC/SC/Muslim)
12. NDTV – Poll of Polls Consensus Coverage
13. Reuters – Unemployment and Voter Anger in Bihar Ahead of Elections
14. Business Standard – EC to Parties: Don’t Misuse AI Tools in Bihar Campaigning
15. Times of India – EC Orders Parties to Label AI-Generated Content
16. Mathrubhumi – Exit Poll Accuracy Audit (2015 & 2020)
17. Hindustan Times – Bihar Exit Poll 2025: Live Coverage and Party Responses
18. NDTV – Jan Suraaj Projected Seat Range